United Cuts 2026 Profit Forecast as Fuel Costs Climb, but Bookings Hold Up

United Airlines has lowered its profit outlook for the year, citing rising fuel costs, though the carrier says travelers are still booking flights.

For the fourth quarter, United expects adjusted earnings of 50 cents to $1.50 a share, short of the $1.76 analysts had projected. Even at the top of that range, full-year 2026 adjusted earnings would reach no more than $7.22 a share - down sharply from the $9 to $11 a share the airline forecast in mid-July.

Fuel is the culprit. United expects to pay an average of $4.80 a gallon in the fourth quarter, up from $3.90 in the third. Its fuel bill jumped nearly 62% year over year in the third quarter to $4.84 billion, as a surge in fuel prices has added billions to airline costs industry-wide and pushed fares higher.

Still, demand has held. Third-quarter revenue rose 17.4% to $17.88 billion, with domestic passenger unit revenue up 14.5% and international up 17.4% - signs of higher fares. Passenger counts climbed more than 2% from a year earlier.

Net income for the quarter ended Sept. 30 rose 8.5% to $1.03 billion, or $3.14 a share, from $949 million a year earlier. Adjusted earnings per share came in at $2.54, just under the $2.57 analysts expected, on revenue of $17.88 billion versus $17.9 billion projected.

CEO Scott Kirby credited employees for meeting "the challenge of our ever-changing environment," saying the results reflect a focus on building a brand-loyal airline.