Summer Travel in Peril as Iran Conflict Cuts Jet Fuel Supply to Asia and Europe

A jet fuel crisis is brewing that could upend summer travel across Asia and Europe, as the fallout from the U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iran and Tehran’s blockade of the Strait of Hormuz chokes off a vital supply line. Before the conflict erupted on Feb. 28, the Persian Gulf was the world’s biggest source of jet fuel exports, according to the International Energy Agency. Europe, which got about 20% of its jet fuel from the Gulf, is feeling the pinch first. But Asia isn’t far behind.

Refineries in China, South Korea, and India—the other major exporters—depend heavily on Middle Eastern crude. With roughly 90% of Gulf oil passing through the strait bound for Asia before the war, those plants are now scrambling. “It’s a slow motion car crash,” said Matt Smith of Kpler. Global jet fuel exports dropped 30% in April from a year earlier, to 1.3 million barrels per day. Last week, tanker loadings plunged 50%.

European airlines are already cutting back. Lufthansa slashed 20,000 short-haul flights through October, partly due to fuel costs that have doubled in Europe to $187 per barrel. The Airports Council International Europe warned the EU of a “systemic jet fuel shortage” unless the strait reopens. But Chevron CEO Mike Wirth said clearing mines and redeploying ships will take weeks, if not months.

The grace period from pre-war tanker deliveries has ended, said ConocoPhillips’ Andrew O’Brien. Commercial stockpiles are draining, and Exxon Mobil CEO Darren Woods warned they’ll soon hit minimums. Some energy-importing nations could face critical shortages by June or July.

U.S. refiners like Valero and Marathon Petroleum are ramping up jet fuel output, boosting exports to Europe by 400% in April. But the West Coast, which relies on South Korean imports, remains vulnerable. “It’s a series of dominoes falling,” Smith said. “Jet is the first to go. But it’s going to spread across the globe.”