Ryanair Chief Warns European Air Fares Could Climb Up to 20% in 2027

Ryanair chief executive Michael O'Leary has predicted that European air fares could rise by as much as 20% in 2027, as carriers contend with fuel costs driven higher by the Middle East conflict.

Speaking at a news conference in Brussels, O'Leary said he expects fares to increase by 10%, 15% or possibly 20% over the next 12 months, describing it as potentially the largest rise in European air fares on record.

Many airlines have not hedged against rising jet fuel costs, he said, warning that the pressure could lead to bankruptcies and takeovers across the industry.

According to O'Leary, the Iran conflict that began in late February choked off fuel supplies and sent jet fuel prices soaring. The airline body IATA has forecast that jet fuel prices will average $152 a barrel across 2026, up from $90 in 2025, cutting into airline profits.

Ryanair was 80% hedged at $67 a barrel when the conflict began, O'Leary said, but for 2027 the airline has hedged only 15% of its fuel costs at $85 a barrel, while spot rates are currently around double that level. He said most other European carriers are similarly exposed.

EasyJet reported a £105m annual rise in fuel costs in July and said it had hedged 62% of its fuel needs for the first half of 2027 and 37% for the second half. The airline announced in October it was cutting 700,000 seats from its winter schedule to save fuel.

O'Leary also announced Ryanair would cut 20 routes and more than one million seats from its Belgian winter schedule, after the federal government decided to raise aviation tax from €2 to €7 in January.

Industry leaders have warned that some carriers will struggle to survive the fuel price shock. Surveys suggest travellers expect higher fares and are willing to spend more, though it remains unclear how long consumers can absorb the increases.