Heathrow expansion threatens to siphon jobs from Britain’s regions, analysis shows

A new report warns that Heathrow’s planned third runway could pull thousands of jobs away from the rest of the UK, with the West Midlands alone facing a loss of nearly 10,000 positions. The analysis, based on government forecasts, suggests that airports across England and Wales would see millions of passengers diverted to Heathrow, dealing a blow to regional economies.

According to the Department for Transport’s own economic modeling, Birmingham Airport would lose 7.5 million passengers annually by 2050—a drop that translates into roughly 9,500 jobs at the airport and in its supply chain. The New Economics Foundation (NEF) argues that the jobs Heathrow gains are primarily moved from other areas, not created anew. Under current projections, 15,200 aviation jobs that would have gone to the regions and 6,400 jobs at other London and southeast airports would instead shift to Heathrow by 2050.

The government counters that the NEF’s analysis is too narrow, pointing to the 60,000 local jobs Heathrow expansion would bring and insisting that up to 40% of the £2.6bn economic benefit would reach areas outside London and the southeast. A DfT spokesperson noted that Birmingham Airport’s passenger numbers are expected to nearly triple by 2055, creating more local jobs. Yet critics highlight that the overall GDP boost is just 0.05% per year, and the environmental cost—including significant health impacts on up to three million nearby residents—remains a major concern. With Prime Minister Andy Burnham skeptical of southern‑focused infrastructure spending, the political future of the £33bn plan, which would raise flights from 480,000 to 756,000 a year, is far from certain.