Canadians Are Skipping U.S. Cities in Droves—New Data Shows a 42% Plunge

A new tool that tracks cell phone signals reveals a startling trend: Canadian visits to major U.S. metropolitan areas have dropped by 42% compared to last year. That figure far exceeds official border-crossing data, which pegs the decline at around 25%, according to researchers at the University of Toronto.

The tool, which monitors Canadian devices traveling to U.S. metro areas from April 2024 through March 2026, suggests that Canadians are specifically avoiding big cities—not just staying home. The researchers point to heightened immigration enforcement, border crackdowns, and lingering anger over Trump-era tariffs and talk of making Canada the 51st state as key factors.

It’s not just border towns feeling the pinch. The data shows steep drops in visits to New York, New Hampshire, and Vermont, as well as major tourist magnets like Las Vegas and Walt Disney World. Even Florida, a winter haven for Canadian snowbirds, saw fewer visitors. High-tech hubs like San Francisco and financial centers like Houston are also losing business travelers, as economic uncertainty on both sides of the border reshapes travel habits.

Karen Chapple, director of the School of Cities at U of T and a co-author of the report, says one striking example is Grand Rapids, Michigan. “There used to be a lot of back and forth between the two places for work,” she notes, especially in the auto industry. Since the U.S. slapped tariffs on Canadian goods, including vehicles, that cross-border flow has slowed.

The researchers caution that the cell phone data captures more than just tourists—it includes Canadians living temporarily in the U.S., which may reflect a broader return migration to Canada. For context, Canadian government data shows a 25% drop in return trips from the U.S. in 2025, while American visits to Canada fell a more modest 7.5%.