Analysts Warn of Further Airfare Hikes if Hormuz Disruption Persists

International flight prices could climb an additional 10% in 2027 if the Middle East conflict continues, according to an analytical report from Tourism Economics.

The disruption of energy exports through the Strait of Hormuz has pushed up oil and jet fuel prices. Analysts note that jet fuel has risen more sharply than crude oil due to record-high refining margins and concerns about storage and supply reliability.

Some airlines have already cut summer ticket prices to stimulate demand, betting that the situation will normalize and costs will ease. However, the overall expectation is that the most noticeable fare increases will appear late in 2026. If supply disruptions persist into 2027, prices could rise by up to an additional 10%.

Even under a relatively favorable scenario, Tourism Economics' modeling suggests that average global airfares in 2026 could end up 5–10% higher than pre-conflict expectations.

The exact impact is hard to pin down, as higher costs typically take months to show up in final prices—partly due to airlines' hedging strategies and advance ticket bookings.