American Airlines Trims 2026 Outlook as Fuel Costs Bite

American Airlines became the latest carrier to dial back its financial projections on Thursday, cutting its 2026 earnings forecast after a sharp rise in jet fuel prices added billions to operating expenses. The Fort Worth-based carrier now expects an adjusted per-share loss of up to 40 cents, or earnings as high as $1.10. That's a steep drop from the $1.70 to $2.70 per share it predicted back in January, though analysts had already been trimming their own estimates following the U.S.-Israel strikes on Iran earlier this year.

Fuel, typically an airline's second-biggest cost behind labor, has been swinging wildly since the conflict began. Several carriers have either lowered their full-year outlooks or paused new guidance entirely. To offset the pinch, airlines are scaling back capacity growth, which tends to push ticket prices higher when fewer seats are available. Executives say passengers are still booking despite the fare increases.

American noted that even with a $4 billion jump in fuel costs, the midpoint of its 2026 earnings forecast is essentially flat year-over-year. "We're going to recover, but key to that is just supply and demand balance," CEO Robert Isom told CNBC. "We're going to be quick to make sure that we adjust our flying if we need to."

For the current quarter, American expects capacity to grow up to 6%, with revenue climbing between 13.5% and 16.5% from last year—in line with analyst expectations. Adjusted earnings per share are projected to range from a loss of 20 cents to a gain of 20 cents. First-quarter results beat Wall Street estimates: a loss of 40 cents per share on $13.91 billion in revenue, versus the expected loss of 47 cents on $13.79 billion. Net loss narrowed to $382 million from $473 million a year ago.

"American delivered record revenue in the first quarter, and we're on track for another record in the second quarter," Isom said, citing improvements in customer experience, global network growth, premium revenue, and loyalty programs.